The Average Experience Using Kalshi

This is my average experience using Kalshi. For those that are unaware or are peeking interest about what Kalshi is (just like I had) it is something called aprediction market. A prediction market is essentially where speculation and reality clash where people flat out guess or have good sound logic on what the outcome of a sports match, commodity price, presidential election, weather forecast, what someone said, or whatever is brewing from on of Kalshi’s Market Makers. As you can probably tell, the only thing you can’t bet on is limited by your imagination which is limitless so you can basically ‘Bet on Anything’. Which is appropriately one of Kalshi’s taglines that they used before.

Now a little bit about me, I’m pretty much the average person who knows a bit about popular games played at Casinos and not much else. In fact, I didn’t even realize how big sports betting was until after I started using Kalshi (which yes I have bet on sports because of the app). I heard the stories and you have too of gamblers hitting it big only for them to lose it all and going on the vicious cycle of ‘chasing it’. I hoped that I wouldn’t be one of those people and I’m happy to say that it hasn’t happened to me.

What you will see once you enter the app is there a lot of noise and a lot of numbers and a lot of talking (there is a social aspect about it since when isn’t there nowadays). See, the prediction contracts (the shares you buy for events happening) are split between yes or no. Then they are evaluated on the consensus of what people think will happen and the perceived outcome. This is where the money is made as with trading too, speculation falls flat, underdogs come back, and things are blown over where the next buzzword or event comes along. But not only that but there are way more sub things to bet now that include more yes or nos like in sports who will win the first half, what exact price point will an Oil barrel be, what will be the turnout of a certain election district and which candidate will win. As you can see it can get pretty overwhelming but it won’t stay like that once you find your niche.

My Kalshi Record

This is my exact Kalshi Record from my time in a few months into it and as you can see I am positive but it wasn’t always like this, oh no it wasn’t always like this. I had deposited around $115.00 dollars in total to Kalshi but at what point I was down about $50.00. I don’t have to tell you the absolute misery that so many of you can empathize with me that seeing you actively losing in real time is so disheartening. The chase is really real but I made it a focal point to not try getting it back but take my time and step away when needed.

My first bet was a college football game. Funnily enough, the beginning of my bets were just wildly and blindly putting it on teams I had no clue on. Well, that’s a bit of a lie since I had a bias for southern U.S. teams on the stereotype that they were good at football. My first big win was an arsenal football (soccer) match where I won a dollar. Slowly I ventured to other sports like college basketball, pro basketball, pro football, UFC, and for the mean time boxing.

Admittedly, I got greedy and wanted to test how good the deposit features as there was a big banner all the time saying there was a slowdown on Kalshi’s system due to the high amount of deposits. So I deposited $10 dollars 3 times during the Canelo and Crawford fight. They all went without issue though I did lose the fight. That fight did teach me the valuable lesson of selling your position early when it’s really high as with Kalshi you can sell or buy anytime before the contract closes. Of course that’s one of the golden rules when selling stocks too. Buy low sell high. After that I moved onto something else.

US politics is something that I knew a little bit about as growing up my family would always watch the news during family dinner together. Before I knew it the longest government shutdown in history at this time was looming. I knew from watching the one that happened 2018 years ago that the political lines would be more entrenched and everyone would plant their heels down on issues. Although I bought many yes contracts on how many days the government shutdown would last everything in me hoped I was wrong as I didn’t want to see anyone go without pay and be forced to use food banks.

At the time of this writing I have about $15 dollars on this partial government shutdown and a bit of me wants to put more the conservative in me is telling me to be cautious. I think that’s one of the reasons I haven’t won big or lost it all yet as I play it to safe. As you can see, I have many trades in my account, there are people that have won or lost thousands and they only have about 8 trades. I sell too early to secure my profit or if my tennis match doesn’t go in my favor from the beginning, I sell one percent higher so I can get out and not lose. There’s definitely some big bold players on this thing that’s for sure. I saw one person bet $500 dollars on the government shutdown and now he’s up $15,000, it’s mind boggling how money moves there.

Betting on the Weather

After finishing up a bet where I won on the show The Pitt receiving an award, I wanted to find a category with a low entry point that anyone can realistically do and have access to everyday data. This is when I discovered climate and this is where I made most of my contracts on. Betting on the weather is exactly what it sounds, you look at the weather app on your phone and you take a position based on either the highest or lowest temperature for that day. As of now, only major cities like Los Angeles, Austin, New York, etc are listed but more are added everyday. If you have a dial on the weather and know what each trends mean then this can be a dependable source of wins.

However, that isn’t to say that this is easy money. As with anything, I was cautious and bet no more than $5 dollars for each of the cities I wager on, if it was a sure thing I go for more. What I learned that each weather app is different and each one will tell you different temperatures and with Kalshi’s rules, it was hard to determine as to where exactly the temperature is decided on (its the NWS btw). Anyone that is looking to get good has to do their research and test their theories to hit on consistent temperatures despite rain, heatwaves, thunderstorms, etc. I even had to develop a guide for myself that gives me a good reference on when to buy or when to sell and when to buy again when everyone gets cold feet but I know that its the right temperature. Perhaps one day I will share my guide on here.

The Complaints I Have and the Times I Dislike Using Kalshi

Right off the bat, I do not like the app at all. Positions in my ‘open’ section keep disappearing from their spots and I never know why. The first time that happened to me I almost had a heart attack and rushed to see if the event closed on desktop. Seeing how the name of the game is to sell your position with haste especially when breaking news just dropped like a bombshell on the event only to realize that you can’t then that is completely unacceptable. It is absolutely horrendous. A workaround I found (that I shouldn’t have to do) is to force stop the app causing it to reset but I’ve noticed that it kills your battery since everything has to seemingly load.

Another thing is that prices aren’t accurate all the time. What you see during the initial yes or no window is different or not accurate when you’re actually buying or selling a position. One time when trading on the weather I saw that to buy more was 68¢ but then when I went to buy it was to 38¢. I went backed out and entered yet it still said 68¢ even though it wasn’t the case anymore. Yes I know that positions move fast all the time and the system is playing catch up but these things are important and matter. Though I suppose one can argue that this is part of the misvaluation that I was talking about earlier.

Now this is something I actually addressed to their customer support but they closed my ticket on it. The ‘filter by category’ mode doesn’t even work for me even though it used to in the past. They change the UI for this app so many times I’ve probably seen like 4 or 5 changes these few months and each time it happens it feels like they break something. Don’t get me wrong, additions like live sports play by plays are nice but they shouldn’t be above fundamental things like sorting per category. Kalshi’s customer service used to be really responsive but now even their chat bot isn’t and that is something they can improve on.

Know if This Average Experience Using Kalshi Would be Like Yours

I want to say that although some can argue this is the same as future trading, there is some level of degree of gambling in these wagers since it’s easily more accessible due to the sheer variety available to you. If you are someone to have too much impulsivity when it comes to betting then perhaps some resources would be helpful to see if this is right for you.

With that being said, UALD’s forever mission in this time of ever increasing inflation and delivery of poor quality items, is to find ways to save you money or multiple ways for having income streams. With Kalshi it is no different and our mission is the same. I will continue using Kalshi and hope to increase my profit slowly and steadily (until they improve or something better comes along), only going all in when the time and opportunity comes as when there is opportunity there is profit to be made.

Kalshi Affiliate Join Link

If you would like to try Kalshi for yourself then use my affiliate code to start off with an extra $25 to experiment, play and hopefully win with: